Five reasons that this election is already over (and a couple reasons that it’s not):

1. Obama is already moderating. Most of those on the Left, including me, wanted to scream when the Supreme Court tossed the D.C. gun ban and want to puke when they hear about Obama’s faith based initiatives and want to gag when they witness the pandering like flags on lapels and values as part of a campaign ads. But no one can take the White House without making me scream, puke and gag along the way. Obama is out-flanking McCain before McCain even has a chance to attack.

2. Obama will have a massive money edge. Massive.

3. The McCain brand has crumbled. During the primaries, I argued that McCain was the best choice for the GOP, hands down. His military experience is huge. His independent brand could have potentially challenged Obama as the Independents’ main dude. But that was McCain’s old straight-talking, down to earth, I’m one of you and I’m pretty funny brand. McCain has become the candidate he has so ardently hated in the past. He does not wear it well. It’s a disastrous move. But once the handlers start to handle a politician, it’s almost impossible shake them off (see 20th century for examples).

4. The age is a factor for three key reasons. First, Obama will not only win the young vote, he will bring in the young vote in numbers never before seen. Second, McCain’s age is showing. He does not look good. The strains of the campaign are showing and we’re warming up here. Third, McCain’s age will hurt him among older voters as well. To me, the idea of a guy McCain’s age becoming President seems fine. To my parents, who know what it feels like to be that age, it sounds crazy. I imagine they’re not alone.

5. Bush.

And the reasons it’s not (even though it really is):

1. I don’t think Obama has struck the right chord with women voters. His repetition that he was impressed that Hillary could run her campaign in heels was a loud and clear reminder that he doesn’t quite get this issue.

2. Obama’s speaking ability has not, thus far, translated into the debate format. Hillary often got the best of him. In a country that is equally divided, the debate performances will be key. If I ran the Obama campaign, I’d work on this skill starting now.

About a year ago, I made the following observation:

“As depressing as it is, the Iraq war will not be the location of the Bush teams most historic blunder. It will be in and around Afghanistan. Finishing the job there was an attainable goal, and one that would have made us markedly safer, given us a better standing in the world, and shifted the course of one of the world’s ugliest histories.”

For the past two months, Afghanistan has been deadlier than Iraq. Yes, that is in part because of the decreasing casualties in Iraq, but it is an ominous sign nonetheless.

Question for an era:

Can one talk about environment while chugging bottled water?

Look, one can never be totally sure about something as subjective and open-ended as this, but I feel fairly comfortable saying that this is the greatest guy in history…

From Where the Hell is Matt?.

A longtime newspaper man reflects on the state of his business:

My current metaphor for our business is this: We have to move, and we can see a secure spot for ourselves right across the river. The good news is, there’s a bridge; the bad news is, it’s on fire.

When you’re growing up, it’s good to try a bunch of stuff. Then as you get older, you can figure out what you’re great at (or at least realize where the potential is) and focus on that. Maybe you can even be the best.

Yahoo is grown up. They know what they’re great at. They are great at news. When it comes to news, they absolutely crush Google.

So here’s a whacky idea my Yahoo friends. Why not define yourself by your news services and the other stuff where you destroy the competition?

Then when folks ask you about Google, you can honestly say they are neither big nor good enough for us to even worry about at this point.

Be aggressive. Keep adding features. Roll up blog networks and anything that even smells like a decent news aggregator (hint: Mixx, Digg, all of em).

When I am in my email, give me news. When I make a homepage, give me more news choices and tools. Don’t settle for first place. Crush everyone. Be the place I browse for news, search for news, share news, annotate news, IM news, SMS news, listen to and watch news, eat and drink news, shoot news into my veins, snort news off the tits of more news. News goddammit, news. And while I’m there, give me entertainment too. Be the portal. There I said it. Be so dominant as the web’s start page that you can give me the choice of search engines.

Search is the dominant thing on the web. No doubt. No doubt at all. But if you add up everything other than straight up web search, that’s still a lot. How can leading in so many of those other areas send one down an internet drain?

Search is, for better or worse, your me too feature. You’ve got a damn exclamation point in your logo. Let Google keep the question mark. That battle is over. Don’t bring chains to a fight if you’re better with knives. Bring extra knives. News, entertainment and information is what you’re great at. You’re old enough to know that.