. . . Tuesday July 1, 2008

Five Reasons This Campaign is Over

Five reasons that this election is already over (and a couple reasons that it’s not):

1. Obama is already moderating. Most of those on the Left, including me, wanted to scream when the Supreme Court tossed the D.C. gun ban and want to puke when they hear about Obama’s faith based initiatives and want to gag when they witness the pandering like flags on lapels and values as part of a campaign ads. But no one can take the White House without making me scream, puke and gag along the way. Obama is out-flanking McCain before McCain even has a chance to attack.

2. Obama will have a massive money edge. Massive.

3. The McCain brand has crumbled. During the primaries, I argued that McCain was the best choice for the GOP, hands down. His military experience is huge. His independent brand could have potentially challenged Obama as the Independents’ main dude. But that was McCain’s old straight-talking, down to earth, I’m one of you and I’m pretty funny brand. McCain has become the candidate he has so ardently hated in the past. He does not wear it well. It’s a disastrous move. But once the handlers start to handle a politician, it’s almost impossible shake them off (see 20th century for examples).

4. The age is a factor for three key reasons. First, Obama will not only win the young vote, he will bring in the young vote in numbers never before seen. Second, McCain’s age is showing. He does not look good. The strains of the campaign are showing and we’re warming up here. Third, McCain’s age will hurt him among older voters as well. To me, the idea of a guy McCain’s age becoming President seems fine. To my parents, who know what it feels like to be that age, it sounds crazy. I imagine they’re not alone.

5. Bush.

And the reasons it’s not (even though it really is):

1. I don’t think Obama has struck the right chord with women voters. His repetition that he was impressed that Hillary could run her campaign in heels was a loud and clear reminder that he doesn’t quite get this issue.

2. Obama’s speaking ability has not, thus far, translated into the debate format. Hillary often got the best of him. In a country that is equally divided, the debate performances will be key. If I ran the Obama campaign, I’d work on this skill starting now.

Concentration is important!