. . . Monday November 1, 2004

This Just Cannot Be Close

In an era largely marked by nearly everyone being wrong about everything, what are the chances that everyone is right about this election? And what are the odds that after the thrilla of 2000, we’d have another race that goes down to (and well beyond) the wire? I think the smart money bets against the predictions on this one.

Take the blow-out and the points.

I guarantee there are already plenty of journalists working on their “how we got it so wrong” post-election packages.

In the age of wrong, it is reasonable to bet against conventional wisdom. The crowd will tell a different story tomorrow. Not a landslide, but a big win with a decent spread. Just to prove how far out on a limb I am willing to go, here are a couple more predictions.

Nevada, clean

Florida, no major problems

Ohio, 5 point spread

Illinois, lower than 8% turnout among the dead

The Incredibles, top grossing animated movie ever

Pennsylvania, 6 point spread

Ohio, attention won’t make up for Buckeyes’ season

Mary Cheney, Bisexual

Aside from the fact that I’ve already seen The Incredibles, I have no facts to back up these theories which just makes them all the more appropriate for the season.

In the meantime, here are the pre-game poll numbers (and swing state weather reports) courtesy of Taegan over at Politicalwire.com

Popular Vote Polls:

- CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll has Bush leading 49% to 47%

- Fox News has Kerry ahead 47% to 45%.

- Pew Research Center has Bush ahead 48% to 45%.

- NBC News/Wall Street Journal has Bush ahead 48% to 47%.

- CBS News/New York Times has Bush ahead 49% to 46%.

- Marist College has Kerry ahead 49% to 48%.

- Democracy Corps has Kerry ahead 48% to 47%.

- George Washington University has Bush ahead 49% to 45%.

- American Research Group has Kerry leading 49% to 48%.

Tracking Polls::

- Zogby/Retuers: Tied at 48%.

- Fox News: Kerry leads 47% to 46%.

- ABC News/Washington Post: Tied at 48%

- Rasmussen: Bush leads 48% to 47%.

Electoral Vote Predictions:

- Electoral Vote Predictor: Kerry 298, Bush 231

- National Journal: Bush 217, Kerry 184 with 137 tied.

- Election Projection: Bush 286, Kerry 252

- Ed Fitzgerald: Bush 255-263, Kerry 246-258

- Slate: Kerry 299-239

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Swing State Weather Forecasts:

- Florida: Showers in the panhandle region, cloudy elsewhere.

- Ohio: Thunderstorms and rain across the state.

- Pennsylvania: Showers across most of the state.

- Wisconsin: Partly to mostly cloudy, possible showers in the morning.

- Minnesota: Sunny to partly cloudy.

- Iowa: Mostly clear.

- New Mexico: Partly cloudy.

- Nevada: Sunny.

Although turnout is critical, I tend to think that the worse the weather, the better it is for Dems. According to polls, they want it more. What’s a little rain (or snow, or sleet, or mudslides, or earthquakes, or city-wide sinkholes) if you consider this to be the most important election of your lifetime?


Concentration is important!