For the past couple of weeks, we have seen increasing signs that a major operation in Falluja is imminent. More airstrikes suggest better intelligence about where Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and his key supporters could be located. There have been several articles suggesting that other groups involved in the insurgency have little patience for Zarqawi’s broader Al Qaeda cause and think that his videotaped beheadings humiliate Iraqis and take attention away from those with a more nationalistic cause. Bad guys tend to turn in other bad guys they don’t like. Also, Zarqawi’s public pledge of allegiance to Osama struck some analysts as a sign of desperation.

There are other signals as well. Most of these come from U.S. military commanders who are set to move and say they await only the go-ahead from the Iraqi interim government. They’ve gone to great lengths to make sure everyone knows that only the Iraqis can greenlight the operation (a message that is perhaps important both in Iraq and the U.S.).

Now, Prime Minister Ayad Allawi himself appears poised to give the order:

“We have now entered the final phase of attempts to solve Falluja without a major military confrontation. I hope we can achieve this, but if we cannot, I have no choice but to secure a military solution … the window of such peaceful settlement is closing.”

That window has been slowly closing for weeks. Here’s a question:

Will it shut completely between now and the time polls close on Tuesday?

This year, for Halloween, I went as an issue other than terrorism or Iraq.

Not a single person recognized me.

Yes, it’s come to this. The final weekend. And it’s, as one might have predicted, all about the wars on terrorism and in Iraq. That’s both good news and bad news for the incumbent.

The good news: Aside from disparaging Kerry, the major goal of the Bush campaign team was to keep the focus on the wars and defense. And that makes some sense. W still has an edge when it comes to poll questions focused on terrorism. On one very major level, the Bush team achieved what they set out to do.

The bad news: Almost all of the coverage of the very topics on which the Bush team wanted us focused has been negative. When they developed the strategy, they obviously had little idea that the banner news out of Iraq would be much more catastrophic and much less about success. The images from Iraq coupled with the bin Laden broadcast serve as a stark reminder that W’s tough talk hasn’t always been supported by results on the ground.

And here’s the other news: Whichever candidate wins, his backers will have to quickly shake off the post-election hangover and start to focus on all of the other issues that have been ignored. None of them (Mary Cheney’s love life excepted) have broken through. Forget flu shots, forget social security privitization, forget the deficit, forget outsourcing, forget healthcare, forget the environment and education, forget all of it. Even the surprise surgery on the Supreme Court chief justice couldn’t jar our attention from the issues of war and peace of mind.

The irony is that, whether it’s W or Kerry, we will likely see only modest differences when it comes to our two wars. We have few strategic options in Iraq and regarldless of marketing messages to the contrary, both men will be firm in the battle against terrorists. It seems like the right day to consider that during this endless campaign season, we may have been tricked more than treated.

Don’t waste our time with a state by state electoral analysis…

As long as the Redskins have been the Redskins, the result of their final home game before the election has accurately predicted the outcome of the presidential race. If the Skins win, so does the incumbent. If the Skins lose, the challenger takes over the White House.

So, what was the final score?

Packers: 28
Redskins: 14

Something tells me that green and yellow will be the in colors at the hippest inaugural balls. I still see Kerry winning the popular vote by more than a touchdown.

In somewhat related news, the Vikings got crushed in their game against the NY Giants – despite being favored and despite this latest addition to their huddle.



(Note: the specifics of my weekly football pool bets have no bearing on that which I consider newsworthy…)

It turns out that if you look at the polls and listen to what people are saying, the Osama tape (thankfully) won’t be having any discernable impact on the election. Even the world’s most wanted man has seen his role reduced to merely confirming the dug-in opinions we already have.

Now who would’ve predicted that?

We’re left with an interesting question. If a majority of people find themselves unswayed by the bin Laden tape, then why have the media and the campaigns been wholly focused on the subject since the moment the video aired?

From Slate:

“It seems never to have occurred to President Bush and his advisers that in a globalized world, where borders are porous and technologies of massive destructiveness are available, hidden networks can be far more dangerous than a state, which can be threatened and contained. Yet that surely has been the lesson of the last three years. It is an added irony that the administration’s inability to fully assimilate the threat from ‘non-state actors’ is leading, thanks in part to Zarqawi, to the failure of its effort to reinvent Iraq as a stable democracy in the Middle East.”

For Arnold, a funny thing happened on way to Ohio where he was set to once again endorse President Bush…

He accidentally endorsed himself.

Sly Stallone, this is your wake-up call, pal.