Maybe Karl Rove is not such a wunderkind after all? Almost every angle attempted by the Bush team during this campaign cycle has flopped. The negative ads, the attacks on Kerry’s military record, and the list goes on. Kerry remains in good shape at this point in the campaign.
One of the next major political moves that will backfire is the push to have the Senate vote on the gay marriage amendment in July, ahead of the Democratic Convention.
First, the amendment is a downright silly reason to even consider altering the Constitution. Second, it will not get the votes needed in the Senate (if it does, I’ll be blogging from outside U.S. borders by the time the last vote is cast). Third, and (since this is largely a political move) most important, it will not move the voters that Bush and Kerry need to move.
Does Bush really need to pull out all of the stops to rev up the religious right and evangelicals? Something tells me he had them at hello. This move, coming during the peak of the election season will in fact have an effect opposite of the one desired. Conservatives will become increasingly irritated with the big spending, big government, interventionist Bush who now even wants to mess with America’s secular good book. Swing voters will roll their eyes and wonder why anyone thinks that abortion or gay marriage or other cultural divides are the way to get them over the hump (pun somewhat intended).
Ultimately the vote in the Senate will make Bush look petty and divisive. Interestingly, it will also come at just about the same time as John Kerry throws his campaign into another gear. And that stage of the Kerry campaign will be all about unity and optimism.